Under the booming supply and demand, how to deduce the steel market?
On April 17, a series of economic data for the first quarter of my country were released one after another. Under the country’s adoption of a series of policies and measures to stabilize economic development, different data in various fields stabilized and rebounded, which cross-confirmed the gradual improvement of the domestic economic situation. The author will talk about the supply and demand situation of the steel market in the future from the following macro data. From the perspective of the domestic economic index, the economic operation in the first quarter was still within a reasonable range, with the gross national product 6.4% year-on-year, higher than the expected 6.3%, and unchanged from the previous value of 6.4%.
1. From the data on the supply side of the steel market, in March 2019, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products of industrial enterprises above designated size accelerated. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased to varying degrees. The national steel output was 97.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. According to this calculation, the average daily output of steel in March was 3.157 million tons, an increase of 251,000 tons from the previous month.
In March, the national crude steel output was 80.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. According to this calculation, the average daily output of crude steel in March was 2.591 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous month.
In March 2019, the national steel market inventory according to statistics from our website was 12.9866 million tons, down 1.27% from the same period last year. Under the current pattern of good demand, it is expected that the national steel market inventory will continue to decline.
Since October 2018, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate has continued to decline until March 2019. The increase in the production of steel, crude steel, pig iron and other domestic industrial enterprises in March is mainly due to the environmental protection and production restriction policies. Due to the weakening, with the end of the peak shift production limit in autumn and winter, the production end of steel mills across the country has gradually entered the stage of resumption of production driven by high profits. Based on the current situation, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of steel mills will continue to increase in the later stage. , but the room for improvement may be relatively limited.
2. From the perspective of steel demand, the growth rate of manufacturing investment accelerated in March, the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment stopped falling and rebounded, and China's steel exports increased more than expected.
In terms of infrastructure investment, domestic infrastructure investment in January-March increased by 4.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January-February. The real estate data began to show a small spring. From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2,380.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first two months. The speed increased by 5.9 percentage points. The sales of commercial housing was 2,703.9 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6%, and the growth rate increased by 2.8 percentage points. The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 25.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%, and the decline rate narrowed by 1 percentage point.
From the above data, it can be seen that my country's real estate development investment increased significantly in the first quarter, and the growth in the area of new housing is also very eye-catching. Although the current data on the sales area, sales and land purchase area of commercial housing are still unsatisfactory, the rate of decline has begun to slow down. Slow down, superimposed that the current national infrastructure investment is increasing, indicating that the national steel demand will still have strong support in the later period.
In terms of steel exports, China's export data began to grow positively. From Figure 5, it can be seen that China's steel exports in March 2019 were 6.327 million tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 1.815 million tons, an increase of 40.22%, a record nine months. Since the new high, the export data is also a good support for the domestic steel demand side.
3. From the perspective of capital, the cumulative increase in financing scale in the first quarter was 8.18 trillion yuan, 2.34 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. New RMB loans were 1.69 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year. The reason is that there was no seasonal factor in February in March, and after the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio for many times, the liquidity of the banking system was relatively abundant. In the later period, driven by a more active fiscal policy, the national capital will be more loose and more liquid, and the domestic real economy will be strongly supported, which is undoubtedly positive for the price of domestic commodities.
Based on the above viewpoints, judging from the latest domestic macroeconomic operation data, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has been alleviated to a certain extent. Although there are still many uncertainties in the apparent consumption index and the international macroeconomic situation, due to domestic With the emergence of macro-control measures, steel projects such as real estate and infrastructure have recovered, and the overall demand for steel has been effectively guaranteed. Driven by high profit margins, the production side of steel mills has high production enthusiasm, but at present, steel mills across the country have basically resumed production, and the subsequent supply side continues to release limited increments, and the current market inventory depletion speed is still relatively fast, supply and demand The fundamentals are at a relatively healthy level, and the steel market as a whole shows a boom in both supply and demand. Under this circumstance, the short-term domestic steel prices may still maintain a strong and volatile trend.
However, it is worth noting that considering that after the rapid increase in the first half of April, the domestic steel price is at a relatively high level, there is a certain fear of heights in the market, and the persistence of the release of downstream demand remains to be seen. Steel profits are high, and the pressure on the supply side may continue to rise in the later period. At that time, the supply and demand pattern of the steel market will face the risk of deterioration. Once the speed of inventory depletion slows down significantly or the inventory turns to an inflection point, domestic steel prices will face certain downward pressure.
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